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The Future
of the logistic industry

From the above analysis, we can
absorb the following insights and future directions in the area of operations of
logistics and supply chain management.

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First, the logistics issue
regarding the people’s livelihood becomes a hot spot. The traditional research
in this regard is related to perishable product, fashion product, and
electronic product, which have short life cycle. Nowadays, such topics might
include city logistics, emergency logistics, and agriculture supply chains.

Second, new directions on
logistics and supply chain management can be brought about by the development
of economy and technology. 

The two
leading companies at the forefront of disrupting the logistics sector through
the development of autonomous vehicles are Google and Tesla, considering
Tesla we can conclude about the future in general:

·        
Tesla’s true potential may not lie in its electric
car business, but rather its future battery business.

·        
Tesla’s union with Solar-City could drastically
disrupt the electric power industry and logistic industry.

Tesla’s forthcoming long-haul, electric
semi-truck will offer a self-driving mode and move in “platoons” that
automatically follow a lead vehicle, Tesla and the Nevada Department of Motor
Vehicles are in discussions to begin testing a prototype. The idea that Tesla is working on incorporating self-driving
technology into its upcoming semi-truck falls in line with how aggressive the
company has been at building the same tech into its consumer cars.

Autonomous
Trucks Will Mean Big Savings For Freight Companies: Autonomous driving technologies are determining the future of the trucking industry. While the
first tests for self-driving trucks under real conditions are underway, the entire
absence of the driver is still far in the future.

Using data from the specialist
magazine Lastauto Omnibus, a study by PwCsuggests
that by 2025, fleet owners could reduce their total costs by 15% compared to
2016 and even 28% beyond that year (considering the current annual operating
costs of €115,600 for an average long-haul truck).While fixed costs (such as
gasoline) and variable costs (including tax, rates for cleaning, communication
and testing costs) would be reduced by a mere 7% respectively, the highest
potential for saving lies with the cost of a driver.

Accordingly, autonomous driving
technologies are likely to reduce annual costs of a driver by staggering 30 % by
2025 – an incentive that makes self-driving trucks a hot prospect for freight
companies.

However, from the perspective of
drivers employed at freight companies, this is bad news: Goldman Sachs estimated that the new technology could eliminate 25,000 driver
jobs a month or 300,000 per year about 25 years from now.

Secondly talking about the implications of Google on logistics industry
we see that the first big leap to fully autonomous vehicles is due in 2017,
when Google  said it would have an integrated system ready
to market. Every major automotive manufacturer is likely to follow by the early
2020s, though their systems could wind up being more sensor-based, and rely
less on networking and access to map information. Google probably won’t
manufacture cars. More likely, it’ll license the software and systems.

As with the adoption of any new
revolutionary technology, there will be problems for businesses that don’t
adjust fast enough. Futurists estimate that hundreds of billions of dollars (if
not trillions) will be lost by automakers, suppliers, dealers, insurers, parking companies, and many other
car-related enterprises. And think of the lost revenue for governments
via licensing fees, taxes
and tolls, and by personal injury lawyers and health insurers.

Indeed, Google’s goal is to
increase car utilization from 5-10% to 75% or more by facilitating sharing.
That means fewer cars on the road, fewer cars period in fact. Who needs to own
a car when you can just order a shared one and it’ll drive up minutes later,
ready to take you wherever you want?

This has the potential to dramatically
reduce the number of cars on the street, 80% of which have people driving alone
in them, and also a household’s cost of transportation, which is 18% of their
income – around $9,000 a year – for an asset that they use only 5% of the
time,” said Robin Chase, the founder and CEO of Buzzcar, a peer-to-peer car sharing
service, and co-founder and former CEO of Zipcar.

In 2030, self-driving cars are
expected to create $87 billion worth of opportunities for automakers and
technology developers, said a report by Boston-based Lux Research. Software
developers stand to win big because of the following reasons that are cited
below.

Changing
Oil Demand: 
These vehicles should practice a very efficient eco-driving practice, which
is typically about 20% better than the average driver,” said Chase “On
the other hand, if these cars are owned by individuals, I see a huge rise in
the number of trips, and vehicle miles travelled. People will send out their
car to run errands they would never do if they had to be in the car and waste
their own time. If the autonomous cars are shared vehicles and people pay for
each trip, I think this will reduce demand, and thus (vehicle miles travelled).”

Safety Factor: Autonomous vehicles are also expected to be
safer. “These cars won’t get drunk or high, drive too fast, or take unnecessary
risks – things people do all the time,” Chase said.

“Over 90% of accidents today are
caused by driver error,” said Professor Robert W. Peterson of the Center for
Insurance Law and Regulation at Santa Clara University School of Law. “There is
every reason to believe that self-driving cars will reduce frequency and
severity of accidents, so insurance costs should fall, perhaps
dramatically.”

Barry said it’s too early to
quantify exactly how self-driving vehicles will affect rates, but added that
injured parties in a crash involving a self-driving car may choose to sue the
vehicle’s manufacturer, or the software company that designed the autonomous
capability.

Self-driving cars may also
challenge train lines. “A self-driving car offers much of the convenience
of rail service with the added convenience that the service is portal-to-portal
rather than station-to-station,” Peterson said. “On the other hand, a fleet of
self-driving cars available at the station may make rail service more
palatable. “The technology has already been adopted in closed systems, such as
campuses, air-terminals and mining,” he noted. “Rio Tinto Group (RIO), a large mining company, uses enormous
self-driving trucks in its mining operations. European countries are experimenting
with the platooning of trucks. Among other things, this saves about 18% in
fuel.”

However it plays out, these automated technology is coming– and fast.
The complete adoption might take decades, but convenience, cost, safety and
other factors will make them ubiquitous and indispensable. Such as with any
technological revolution, the companies that plan ahead, adjust the fastest and
imagine the biggest will survive and thrive. The companies that invested in old
technology and practices will need to evolve.

 

References

1.      The
self-driving order picking system Kiva. URL:
http://cdn.wonderfulengineering.com/wp-content/
uploads/2014/01/Kiva-Systems-Amazon-Warehouse-2.jpg

2.      Small
autonomous vehicles in the KARIS PRO System. URL: http://www.karispro.de/

3.      mobiFlip.de
The extraordinary Google Self-Driving Car. URL:
http://www.mobiflip.de/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/ google_self_driving_car.jpg

4.      Safety-related
information is instantly communicated with V2V communication. URL:
http://image.motortrend.com/f/features/consumer/
1311_sampling_toyotas_technical_treats/57448184/toyotaprius-vehicle-to-vehicle-communication-diagram.jpg

5.      Tesla
proves autonomous driving technology. URL: http://www.psfk.com/2014/07/hyundai-smart-techself-driving-cars.html

6.      http://www.supplychain247.com/article/teslas_electric_semi_truck_will_be_able_to_drive_itself

7.      The
self-driving order picking system Kiva. URL:
http://cdn.wonderfulengineering.com/wp-content/
uploads/2014/01/Kiva-Systems-Amazon-Warehouse-2.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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